A Verdict workproduct

What ends in a decision.

Sample output from a PE Advisory run. Synthetic deal, real workproduct shape.

Project Atlas
€420M LBO · NA specialty chemicals · Q1 2026
Verdict — Proceed with conditions
  • Critical Customer concentration: top 3 = 47% of revenue. Single-buyer churn collapses the thesis.
  • Material EBITDA bridge unproven — $4.2M of synergy assumed without comparable-deal precedent.
  • Material Regulatory: EU REACH compliance review pending; outcome impacts 18% of forecast volume.
  • Watch Working capital seasonality understates Q4 cash pull by ~€8M.
Entry Bear Base Bull
9.5x 1.8x 2.6x 3.4x
10.5x 1.5x 2.3x 3.0x
11.5x 1.2x 2.0x 2.7x

At 10.5x asking, base-case MOIC of 2.3x is below the 2.5x fund hurdle.

Proceed at 9.8x or below. Negotiate price down 70 bps from asking. Require seller indemnity on top-3 customer attrition (24-month tail). Make REACH clearance a closing condition.

Documents CIM · QoE · Model · 3 industry reports
Confidence 0.87 weighted
Sourced 192 of 192 findings

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